Electricity in Texas is set on the margin — by whichever plant has to fire up next. Understanding that machine is the difference between a good contract and an expensive one. Here's how we read it.
Many sources of power generate electricity, but natural gas defines the cost of energy in Texas. When things get tight, less efficient equipment comes online — more gas burned per kWh, and some very impressive pricing.
Intellergy believes you should understand these relationships. Knowing what moves your contract options day-to-day is what lets us decide — together — on the right type and term of contract.
Illustrative annual share of ERCOT generation. The mix shifts hour by hour — and the most expensive plant running sets the price for everyone.
ERCOT dispatches generation from cheapest to most expensive. When demand climbs, less efficient peaker units come online — and whatever that last plant charges to run becomes the clearing price for everyone in the queue.
That's why summer afternoons and February freezes look nothing like a Tuesday in April.
Your contract pricing isn't set by your retailer. It's the daily output of these inputs — and the difference between a well-timed lock and a panic signature is paying attention to all of them.
Gas is the marginal fuel in ERCOT. When gas spikes — winter storms, LNG export demand, hurricane disruptions — your forward curve moves the same day.
10-day forecasts ripple through load expectations. A hot stretch lifts demand, pulls less efficient plants online, and pushes prices up across the curve.
Tight reserve margins mean expensive peaker units set the price. The wider the spread between supply and demand, the cheaper your tail months get.
Summer peaks. Winter shoulders. Your load shape — when you use power — determines how the curve maps to your specific contract price.
“Understanding what market change means for your cost of electricity puts us both in position to make better choices.”
The Principals · Intellergy
The market doesn't care that your fiscal year ends in June or that your last broker pitched you in October. It's our job to read the room — and tell you when the curve's shape works in your favor, and when waiting another month is the smarter call.
Soft markets
Lock longer. Use the dip to add term — 36 to 60 months — on tight terms.
Tight markets
Stay short. Buy 12 months at a time, and revisit when the curve flattens out.
Volatile markets
Split the load. Layer in tranches so no single signing date defines your budget.
Stable markets
Match your term to your business cycle. Operations, not the curve, drives the decision.
Send us a recent bill and a signed LOA. We'll pull your usage, model your shape, and give you a plain-English market position — at no cost.
